Projecting Growth in Metro Vancouver – Methods Overview

Metro Vancouver's mandate to prepare, implement and monitor Metro Vancouver 2040: Shaping our Future (Metro 2040), the regional growth strategy, requires estimates of how much growth the region may experience and how it might be distributed within the region. Metro Vancouver projects growth in population, housing and employment to support regional and municipal planning, transportation modelling and demand planning for regional water and wastewater services.

Statistics Canada, through the Census, provides the most reliable comprehensive source of baseline and trend data for population, housing and employment. A variety of other data sources are used to monitor current population, housing, employment and land use activity and are described in this backgrounder.

In the backgrounder you will find:

  • Details on the methods and assumptions used to generate population projections including, as examples, birth and death rates, intra and inter-province migration rates and immigration rates.
  • Projected housing demand for the projected population including, as examples, trends in household size and dwelling unit types
  • A discussion of the assumptions used to predict regional growth, and an assessment of the opportunity to maintain 99% of that growth within the existing urban containment boundary, with a focus on urban centres, and
  • A description of the process and constraints to projecting future employment growth, which is inter-related between the type and level of economic activity in the region, and includes trends in employment demand, and the regional labour force.

Metro Vancouver’s projections are updated on a regular basis, as new sources of data become available and as the Census is undertaken. Metro Vancouver continues to work closely with member jurisdictions, other regional agencies and key stakeholders to provide and share data to build accurate and consistent population, housing and employment projections.